Retail prices stable, but summer meals may cost 3.2% more
Reports of wholesale price drops on essential food items like eggs, milk, and bread aren’t being reflected fully in grocery stores as the major chains have shown little differences in food prices since February.
Wholesale egg prices, those sold to food vendors that have contracts with grocery stores, dropped 47 percent since January. This is attributed to the birth of more laying hens to replace those the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) ordered destroyed last year because of bird flu scares.
The inspector general of the USDA, Phyllis Fong, was fired this year by the Trump administration. She ordered the chicken culling in recent years, although the official reason for her firing was the administration labeled her a “rogue” administrator and wanted her replaced by someone more favorable.
Milk prices also dropped since January. The projected price for 2025 put it at $1.00 lower per cwt (weight equal to 100 pounds) than in March. Additionally, President Trump’s tariffs caused more milk to remain in the U.S. rather than being exported, causing a 12 percent wholesale price drop.
Average whole wheat bread prices dropped in January and then rose in February, from a 2.7 cent per pound drop to up to 10.4 cents per pound.
What does this mean for retail prices?
Retail prices on these items and other foods decreased slightly in January but have remained steady. Eggs went down on average 10 cents a dozen but remain around $5 a dozen or more at most stores including Publix, Kroger, Costco, and Walmart. Ingle’s also has Laura Lynn eggs for $5.19 a dozen. Eggland’s Best eggs remain at $3.81 a dozen, the best price found, but were sold out in Cartersville Friday.
The retail milk price decreased from $4.03 a gallon in 2023 to $3.98 in 2024. A look at the chain stores shows it has dropped a little more with most running prices from $3.53 to $4 a gallon. The cheapest prices were at Ingles with a gallon price of $2.99 and Aldi with its $2.53 a gallon price.
Bread has remained constantly inflated with little drop in retail pricing. Loaves that were $1.00 a few years ago are $1.98 now. The average price at popular grocery stores was between $1.50 to $2.15 a loaf, depending on the brand. Even Aldi, which once boasted 64-cent loaves, is pricing bread at well over a dollar.
Consider Inflation
One of the key factors when you consider retail markets is inflation. It is lower than it was in 2023 and 2024. Inflation in 2023 was 3.4 percent and was 2.9 percent in 2024. It is currently 2.4 percent. While that doesn’t mean a price drop, food prices aren’t escalating as they did a few years ago.
Transportation Included
Another factor is transportation pricing. The distribution cost from the wholesaler to the grocer also figures into the final retail price. Higher gas prices contributed to inflated prices, according to experts. With crude oil dropping between 3.3 and 3.7 percent in April and more U.S. drilling planned, it is possible that food prices could lower with the drop in transportation costs.
Summer Meals Will Likely Cost More
Summer grocery sales may leave shoppers disappointed. Traditionally, foods like pork, produce, and ice cream are popular sale items for summer. Expectations are that food prices will rise slightly, although not to the extent they have in recent years.
The USDA is predicting grocery-store food to rise by 2.7 percent while restaurant food will rise by 3.7 percent. The expectation is for food prices to have an overall increase of 3.2 percent this summer.
Melody Dareing is a freelance writer who has written for publications in the U.S., Canada, the UK, and Germany. She is the former news director of Adelphia Channel 4 and WBHF radio.