Some parts of Georgia are rapidly decreasing in population and officials are concerned how local communities based on agriculture will survive.
A University of Georgia study based on the U.S. Census figures outlines the population decline since 2010. The fact is that Georgia is growing as a whole but 68 counties lost population. Only 10 counties, which most surrounding Atlanta, account for 70 percent of population growth since 2010.
Experts state two reasons for declining populations: migration and low birth rates.
Migration in and out of the state maintains stability with more coming in than leaving. An estimated 253,275 people left Georgia in 2023 while 327,795 moved in. A year from July 2023 to July 2024 saw an increase in 114,646 residents. Georgia remains the eighth most populous state with its 11.2 million people.
The population decrease is occurring in the highly agricultural areas of Middle and South Georgia. Populations continue to grow in suburban areas outside of metropolitan cities, along the coast and in North Georgia. However, looking at the maps, some of that growth is slim.
In Northwest Georgia, Dade, Walker, Whitfield and Chattooga Counties have a 5 percent or less change, according to 2020 numbers. Catoosa and Bartow Counties saw 5 percent growth. Paulding and Cobb Counties experienced 10 percent growth.
While the common answer to population problems is that young people are moving from rural areas to urban areas, some are discussing another trend. People aren’t having babies like they once did. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) puts the U.S. fertility rate at a historic low. The rate is 1.6 children per woman and that is below what is called the “replacement level” needed to maintain population without immigration.
The U.S. has had a low birth rate since 2007 and the trend grew after the Great Recession. It shows no signs of reversing and young people are opting out of marriage and family. Many may be moving to Georgia but it looks like they aren’t bringing kids with them because school enrollment populations are declining statewide.
Georgia’s birth population is declining with 13.1 births for every 1,000 people, according to 2022 numbers. That is a decrease from 2021 when it was 13.41. Georgia’s historic average is 17.1 births.
Lowered populations affect many aspects of communities from business economic revenue generation to taxes. One of the biggest ways it affects counties is in its schools. Dr. David McKalip, a Cartersville neurosurgeon, posted on Nextdoor about Bartow County’s declining school population in his support for a November Homestead Exemption referendum vote to adjust property tax increases to rise no higher than inflation. The referendum doesn’t allow school systems or local governments to opt out on the measure as a previous bill allowed.
“The Bartow County Schools continue to lose students. However, they are clinging to a talking point that they need more taxes for “growth.” McKalip said the Bartow County and Cartersville School Systems have regularly pushed property taxes up 10 to 20 percent yearly.
Looking at census information, Bartow County will likely see a drop in student enrollment over the next few years. There are 5,141 students in high school and that drops to 4,666 in grades 5 through 8. The number drops further to 4,361 for those enrolled in grades 1 through 4.
Even though Walker County has lost population since 2010, school systems there state that their student enrollment isn’t dropping. The county is providing resources for enrollment but exact numbers aren’t listed, according to data.
One of the counties declining in growth is Clayton County, even though counties surrounding it are growing. Clayton shows growth from 2010 to 2020 but has lost some residents since 2022. The Clayton County board of education is thinking about closing schools because of a decline in enrollment. Enrollment in Clayton schools dropped by more than 700 students since the 2021 school year. Clayton County officials expect a drop in student enrollment of between 2 and 3 percent over the next five years.
That is leading school officials to talk about consolidating some schools and closing others. Specific schools haven’t been named.
Counties with the largest population decrease are Crisp, McIntosh, Dooly, Telfair, and Dougherty Counties. Those with the large numeric increase are Gwinnett, Fulton, Cobb, Forsyth, and DeKalb Counties, according to the UGA study.
People moving to other states are favoring Florida, Alabama, the Carolinas, Texas, Tennessee and California.
Melody Dareing is a freelance writer for publications in the U.S., Canada, the UK, and Germany. She is a former news director of Adelphia Channel 4 and WBHF Radio. Follow her on Facebook to catch her livestream, X for commentary, and subscribe to her podcast on Rumble or content on YouTube.