Beef will remain in short supply through 2024 with demand remaining the same. That means red meat in any form, even cheaper hamburger, will add more to your grocery bill.
Higher prices are a product of continued damage amid a shortage. Beef prices in the first quarter of this year are expected to be between $265 and $272 per cwt (100 pounds). That is expected to rise every quarter to reach a range of $292 to $308 per cwt in the fourth quarter.
U.S. exports of meat also hit an all-time low as producers try to manage demand.
Beef supplies hit the lowest in 40 years in 2023 with the blame shifting to COVID-19 and how that affected supply chain issues and farmers. That led to farmers selling part of their herds early to keep cash coming in for their operations, which means many operated with smaller herds in 2021 and 2022 affected supplies in 2023 and this year.
Yet, what many don’t know is that another factor in overall meat shortages is culled animals in 2020. Millions of chickens, pigs, and cattle were killed off because processing facilities closed. The depopulation occurred as more than 20 slaughterhouses were forced to close during the pandemic. The culled animals are not sold for meat but taken out of the food production process, leaving producers with smaller herds.
Other reasons given are drought and high input pricing limited herd expansion. Many food processing facilities also were burned over the past two years across the U.S. A North Carolina chicken farm burned earlier this week. Beef prices began to rise in 2019 after a Tyson Foods Inc. slaughterhouse was forced to close because of a damaging fire.